Circum-Pacific Tectonics and Seismic Potential

I have analyzed the tectonics and seismic potential of a series of regions around the Circum-Pacific, including the South-American, Aleutians, Kuriles and Kamchatka Island Arcs and Southeast Alaska, which are all likely candidates to generate great (M > 8) or gigantic (M > 9) earthquakes in the future as they have done in the past 70 years. I have been successful in delimiting not the time but the subduction or arc segments and extend of rupture of several great earthquakes that have occurred in South-East Alaska and South-America in the past two decades, which can be read in the following papers.


  • McCann W. R., O. J. Pérez and L. R. Sykes, Yakataga Gap, Alaska: Seismic History and Earthquake Potential, Science, 207, 1309-1314, 1980

  • Pérez O. J. and K. H. Jacob, Tectonic Model and Seismic Potential of the Eastern Gulf of Alaska and Yakataga Seismic Gap, Journal of Geophysical Research, 85, 7132-7150, 1980

  • Pérez O. J. and K. H. Jacob, St. Elias, Alaska, Earthquake of February 28, 1979: Tectonic Setting and Precursory Seismicity Pattern, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 70, 1995-1606, 1980

  • K. H. Jacobs, O. J. Perez and others, A comprehensive study of the seismotectonics of the eastern Aleutian arc and associated volcanic system, US Dpt. Energy, paper n° DE-ASO-76, Ero 3134, 01-83, 1981 (including myself and seven others)

  • Pérez O. J. and C. H. Scholz, Long Term Seismic Behavior of the Focal and Adjacent Regions of Great Earthquakes During the Time Between two Successive Shocks, Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, 8.203-8.216, 1997

  • Earthquake prediction studies in Venezuela, Geoscience 98, Keele, U.K., In: Book of Abstracts, pp.16, 1998, Invited Paper.

  • Spatial-temporal-energy characteristics of seismicity occurring during the seismic cycle: A reappraisal, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics IUGG, Birmingham, U.K., In: Book of Abstracts, paper ST1/E/45-A3 1230, 1999.

  • Pérez O. J., Kuril Islands Arc: Two seismic cycles of great earthquakes during which the complete history of seismicity is observed, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 90, 1096-1100, 2000.

  • Seismic moment distribution of long-term foreshocks of great earthquakes, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, In: Book of Abstracts, paper 022015-1, 2006

  • An overview of the earthquake activity and associated hazards in South-America and the Caribbean and the socio-economic impact of severe earthquakes in these regions, AGU American Geophysical Union Meeting of the Americas, Iguazu, Brasil, August 2010, Session U09, 2010, Invited Paper.

  • Pérez O. J., C. Rodríguez and J. L. Alonso, Earthquakes, tsunamis, and the related vulnerability in South-America and the Caribbean – an overview, in: Extreme Natural Hazards, Disaster Risks and Societal Implications, IUGG Special Publications, Cambridge University Press, U.K., 1, 145-151, Ed. A. Ismail-Zadeh, J. Urrutia Fucugauchi, A. Kijko, K. Takeuchi and I. Zaliapin, 2014.